"Stop selling key cuts, start selling judgment, electronics, lock, credentials, identity, integration, longevity, and risk." That was the advice from ALOA keynote speaker Lee Odess, CEO of The Access Control Collective (TACC), Friday morning. Odess’s core message was that the security industry is in the middle of a transformation unlike anything it has seen in the past 50 years — and locksmiths are sitting at the center of it, whether they realize it or not.

From $10 Billion to $100 Billion

For most of its history, the electronic access control market operated as a relatively stable, slow-growth industry — worth roughly $10 billion, growing at 5–12% annually, with well-defined channels and pricing. Then 2020 hit. COVID accelerated the adoption of cloud-based, mobile-first, and AI-integrated systems. Odess noted that the market is now on its way to $100 billion, driven by a fundamental shift in the value proposition: from keeping bad people out to letting the right people in — and doing far more with access data along the way.

That $90 billion gap represents the opportunity. The question is who claims it, he said.

Where Locksmiths Fit

The speaker was direct: future-focused locksmiths are uniquely positioned to compete for a significant share of this growth, but only if they choose to. Unlike many integrators, locksmiths already hold the licensing, certifications, and hands-on credibility that the marketplace increasingly values. Trust is becoming a competitive differentiator and locksmiths have it built in. The problem is that most aren't leveraging it.

“What I've come to find out is a lot of this comes down to choice. And it's not and/or conversation, which is what our industry likes to have, which is like, is it keys or is it cards? Is it on-site or is it cloud? We like to have these sort of binary conversations. And what I've come away with is that it's... The answer is yes, it's all of it. It's all happening at the same time, which makes it wildly confusing.”

Taking a historic look at the access control industry, not much changed in the years running up to 2020.

Too often, the profession markets itself around the function — key cutting, lock installation, hardware — rather than the expertise behind it. Customers aren't really buying a lock cylinder; they're buying a trusted advisor who can tell them what system is right for their building, their risk profile, and their future needs.

“One of my biggest takeaways from a lot of the conversations that we have and what we'll get into that is here, is that everything that we're going to talk about is a choice: to either jump in and go after the $100 billion opportunity that's happening in our industry now, or to continue to work within the 8% to 12% growth of the historical high security, which is fine. Neither of them are bad. It's just you get to decide, which is wonderful. You get to wake up every single day and make a decision on where you want to work. But it doesn't mean that one is good, one is bad. It doesn't mean that one is irrelevant, one isn't. It just means that we have to make room for both,” Odess told the locksmith audience.

Electronic access control’s growth was slow and steady up until 2020, with well-defined rules, Odess said. The industry was valued at about $10 billion, roughly about 5 to 12% growth. Then the transformation began, triggered partly by Covid and partly by rapid technological advancements. Odess termed 2020 as “bull time,” with legacy companies introducing things like cloud-based systems and mobile systems, plus transformative, new companies that were coming out that were mobile-first, cloud-first, and AI-first. The market grew to around $70 billion and is approaching $100 billion.

Capturing This Market

Electronics-savvy locksmiths are well-positioned to lead the charge and capture a large share of this huge and growing market. “The problem is, currently right now, that if we don't change the way that we approach this marketplace, we're allowing other people can come in and select the option and out of the room,” Odess said.

While not every locksmith is poised to do EAC, and there will always be a need for door hardware and mechanical locks, not to mention the niche markets of automotive and safe servicing. That’s fine, Odess stressed, but the opportunity is there for the EAC specialists who are ready.

The rules are changing, with the lines blurred between locksmiths and integrators. Before, Odess said locks were sold at PACS, which is the physical access control system, which goes to an integrator or a customer. And locksmiths worked with the customers to help with the locks or repairing whatever is needed.

“Now what you're starting to see is all of this change:  lock companies talking to end users, lock companies talking to software companies that are starting to provide it. …What you have right now is the opportunity to play where you wanna play. You can choose where to be.

“A lot of you actually will be integrators more than you are going to be locksmiths. You just happen to be doing locksmithing, which I think is an advantage. …What I can tell you is each of these people inside the value proposition are looking for more people like yourself to help deliver value to a customer base because as it continues to expand, there's less and less people that are in the market to be able to serve it,” Odess said.

4 Industry Trends

He cited the following four industry trends.

Number one, capital market dynamics. A large portion of revenue or capital is coming into our market from private equity firms, changing the dynamics and expectations. People are joining our community looking for capital to go somewhere.

Number 2, market changes, including consolidation. Consolidation continues to change the dynamics and the relationships and expectations and everything that's happening.

Number 3, advancements in electronics and mobile credentials. “I care a little bit about cards going into the phone and how that works. I care more about what happens once I put that card in the phone and what can happen, the value creation that goes on top of it, it's a whole different world. It's a whole different sort of opportunity that exists. That's changing. Identity versus the key, that's also an area that you're starting to see.” This is spurring a resurgence in biometrics to authenticate identity.

Number 4. A mindset change. Security professional need to start looking forward to where EAC and locks will go in the next seven years.

Six Attributes of the Future Locksmith

Locksmiths need to sell their expertise as the trusted security source. “You can do keys and mechanical locks. We know that. It's like a core part of what you do. But what they need from you is judgment that the... products and systems that you put in are actually going to help them deliver on the value and the use case of what they have and what is needed. And it's just a reframing of what you have, you go after that. But it comes down to what do you want to do,” Odess said.

The speaker outlined six priorities for locksmiths who want to compete in the next era:

• Move upstream into credential and software conversions
• Own mechanical and electronic security end-to-end
• Use licensing and certification as a marketplace differentiator
• Use AI as a business tool
• Take a position on open versus closed credential ecosystems
• Build their teams deliberately to fill skill gaps

For many years, software was a feature of hardware rather than an actual product. Now with the shift that is happening, software is a product and the hardware is playing more of a supporting role, Odess said.  And because of that shift, the value is actually going to the software side. Look for hardware-as-a-service type programs where instead of it being a $300 lock or $500 lock, it's $10 a month. That is going to continue to become a more prevalent way that product is sold into the market.

Underlying all six is a mindset shift from reactive installer to proactive security advisor. "Are you a key cutter that happens to hold certifications, or are you a certified security advisor that happens to cut keys and install hardware?" Odess asked. “Most of the physical access control systems that exist on the marketplace will love to have you participate because you can handle a lot of what's going on.”

Three Questions to Take Back to Your Shop

The keynote closed with a practical challenge.

Where in the customer's decision process are you showing up, and where do you need to be?

What percentage of your current revenue could a key kiosk, big-box installer, or AI dispatch tool replace within three years?

Does your team have the skills today to quote a job that covers the cylinder, the credential platform, and the software layer, as well as quoting jobs that involve those products?